Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.119691 0.132058 0.144720 0.158624 0.173437 0.188718 0.205647
2024-12-22 0.094306 0.112219 0.131493 0.153649 0.178292 0.204740 0.235152
2024-12-29 0.081734 0.103852 0.128674 0.158297 0.192386 0.230099 0.274681
2025-01-05 0.071656 0.096659 0.125801 0.161725 0.204271 0.252525 0.310852
2025-01-12 0.063165 0.090114 0.122635 0.163907 0.214026 0.272090 0.343596
2025-01-19 0.055613 0.083751 0.118847 0.164601 0.221435 0.288534 0.372524
2025-01-26 0.053906 0.084553 0.123727 0.175801 0.241540 0.320186 0.419748
2025-02-02 0.048951 0.080477 0.121914 0.178208 0.250549 0.338346 0.450847
2025-02-09 0.045117 0.077514 0.121209 0.181754 0.260798 0.357950 0.483762
2025-02-16 0.040469 0.072928 0.117930 0.181587 0.266063 0.371237 0.508895
2025-02-23 0.039430 0.073484 0.121611 0.190658 0.283302 0.399641 0.552990
2025-03-02 0.037932 0.073177 0.123967 0.197874 0.298127 0.425092 0.593604
2025-03-09 0.034172 0.069229 0.121146 0.198181 0.304239 0.440094 0.622071
2025-03-16 0.029584 0.063541 0.115468 0.194264 0.304586 0.447715 0.641400
2025-03-23 0.028055 0.062752 0.116985 0.200526 0.318799 0.473528 0.684303
2025-03-30 0.026201 0.061218 0.117237 0.204894 0.330430 0.496067 0.723226
2025-04-06 0.024145 0.059108 0.116430 0.207601 0.339716 0.515555 0.758353
2025-04-13 0.021901 0.056408 0.114491 0.208474 0.346342 0.531492 0.788939
2025-04-20 0.022305 0.058714 0.120687 0.221688 0.370609 0.571342 0.851260
2025-04-27 0.020682 0.056948 0.120099 0.224528 0.380083 0.591309 0.887540
2025-05-04 0.019433 0.055784 0.120415 0.228697 0.391465 0.613932 0.927492
2025-05-11 0.017551 0.053114 0.118010 0.228503 0.396445 0.627800 0.955859
2025-05-18 0.017556 0.054415 0.122461 0.239144 0.417356 0.663701 1.013930